No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500K
- Potential profit
- $500K
- User PnL
- -$4.62K
Polymarket Trader
Shovelface
0xd902d85156fe7b309c12299375c00d86ea83cdb9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $33.37K
- Realized PnL
- $96.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $188.89K
- Potential profit
- $188.89K
- User PnL
- -$3.76K
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $50K
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $20.63K
- Potential payout
- $25.01K
- Potential profit
- $4.38K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.7%
- Current value
- $11.75K
- Potential payout
- $13.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $12.5K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.11K
- Potential profit
- $10.11K
- User PnL
- -$1.7K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $6.67K
- User PnL
- -$4.6K
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.27K
- Potential profit
- $2.27K
- User PnL
- -$907.07
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$1.05K
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.1%
- Current value
- $990.65
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $109.46
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$9.35
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $458.44
- Potential profit
- $458.44
- User PnL
- -$71.65
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $438
- Potential profit
- $438
- User PnL
- -$315.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $368.8
- Potential profit
- $368.8
- User PnL
- -$250
Under position
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $352.94
- Potential profit
- $352.94
- User PnL
- -$300
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $175.86
- Potential profit
- $175.86
- User PnL
- -$98.48
Yes position
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$4.6
Yes position
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $89.29
- Potential profit
- $89.29
- User PnL
- -$25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Ends Feb 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.26
- Potential profit
- $62.26
- User PnL
- -$49.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.89K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.82K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.98K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.59K
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $5.97K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.11K
No position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.93K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $942.79
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $799.49
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $739.88
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $564.91
Yes position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $516.89
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.19
Yes position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $365.61
Yes position
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $325.79
Yes position
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $238.93
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.67
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.96
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.1% 400,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 89.3% 3,360.27 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 53.2% 3,108.47 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 24.9% 2,141.88 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 2,413.79 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 86.5% 3,571.51 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 85% 338 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.4% 4,958.42 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 13.3% 1,143.27 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 74.5% 6,173.21 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 90.9% 1,100.11 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 92% 4,347.83 shares