Yes position
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$81
Polymarket Trader
Averel
@averell_sol
0xd995d123c35800412f9dd2585f024ec705c015ff
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $621.67
- Realized PnL
- $1.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$84
No position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $290
- Potential profit
- $290
- User PnL
- -$213.85
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $218.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $58.75
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $173
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $27
Yes position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$44.1
No position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$52
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$56
Yes position
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.8
- Potential profit
- $199.8
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$23.8
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $43.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $56.5
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$24.5
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $94.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.75
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9.25
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $81.37
- Potential payout
- $99.86
- Potential profit
- $18.48
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $5.48
Della Maddalena position
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$20
Brady position
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.72
- Potential profit
- $51.72
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $33
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$15.4
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$24.8
Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $3.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $36.2
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$16.2
Maple Leafs position
Kings vs. Maple Leafs
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.38
- Potential profit
- $6.38
- User PnL
- -$3
Oilers position
Oilers vs. Blue Jackets
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $6
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.43
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.47
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.8
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.5
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $57
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42
No position
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.4
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
Yes position
US strike on Syria by December 31?
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.5
No position
U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.26
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.79
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.27
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.23
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Shevchenko position
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.57
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.5
Yes position
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $23
Spurs position
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.4
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.6
No position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.85
No position
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?No 59% 100 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane 50% 200 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No 64% 250 shares
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No 66% 200 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 92% 100 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No 73% 200 shares
- Trail Blazers vs. SpursSpurs 83% 99.49 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No 70% 13.13 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No 76% 15.86 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No 53% 285.58 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 35% 500 shares
- Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31?No 79% 72.64 shares