No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $41.1
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $19.9
Polymarket Trader
0xda0f...2a19
0xda0f426005ad0c8ed453f4dde98c6ef49c772a19
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $3.54K
- Realized PnL
- $158.47
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $674.7
- Potential payout
- $721.6
- Potential profit
- $46.9
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $13.09
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $329.1
- Potential payout
- $344.78
- Potential profit
- $15.69
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $17.25
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $259.37
- Potential payout
- $272.3
- Potential profit
- $12.93
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $8.97
No position
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $188.62
- Potential payout
- $197.51
- Potential profit
- $8.89
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $4.27
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $146.77
- Potential payout
- $171.66
- Potential profit
- $24.89
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $11.04
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $158.57
- Potential payout
- $166.31
- Potential profit
- $7.73
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $11.22
No position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $100.33
- Potential payout
- $101.5
- Potential profit
- $1.17
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $85.82
- Potential payout
- $88.84
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $4.99
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $75.25
- Potential payout
- $84.08
- Potential profit
- $8.83
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $5.4
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $54.88
- Potential payout
- $65.72
- Potential profit
- $10.84
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $61.57
- Potential payout
- $65.16
- Potential profit
- $3.58
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $47.94
- Potential payout
- $58.83
- Potential profit
- $10.89
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $17.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $49.2
- Potential payout
- $53.19
- Potential profit
- $3.99
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $50.04
- Potential payout
- $52.04
- Potential profit
- $2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.37
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $33.25
- Potential payout
- $40.81
- Potential profit
- $7.55
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 91.8%
- Current value
- $29.18
- Potential payout
- $31.79
- Potential profit
- $2.61
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $29.52
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 92.7%
- Current value
- $28.81
- Potential payout
- $31.09
- Potential profit
- $2.29
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.04
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $29.6
- Potential payout
- $30.46
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $20.46
- Potential payout
- $22.61
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $18.21
- Potential payout
- $21.56
- Potential profit
- $3.35
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $19.96
- Potential payout
- $21.35
- Potential profit
- $1.39
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $19.87
- Potential payout
- $20.86
- Potential profit
- $0.98
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.63
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.21
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.65
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.92
Yes position
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.36
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.31
No position
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.65
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.21
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.01
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.31
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.21
No position
NATO dissolves before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.98
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.05
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Yes position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 96.4% 6 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 96.4% 30 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 96.4% 300 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 77.6% 10 shares
- Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?No 95.9% 20.86 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?No 98.5% 30.46 shares
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No 96% 31.25 shares
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No 97.8% 5.11 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 95.2% 50 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No 95% 200 shares
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No 94% 200 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 96.4% 207.47 shares