Yes position
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $307.41
- Potential profit
- $307.41
- User PnL
- -$166
Polymarket Trader
quasiepistemologist
0xda9243967a48c5076a52696edca6ed33e1f5b84e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.4
- Realized PnL
- -$189.16
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 8
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $272.25
- Potential profit
- $272.25
- User PnL
- -$166
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $28.4
- Potential payout
- $218.46
- Potential profit
- $190.06
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$141.34
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.85
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.87
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.22
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.72
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.94
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$86.75
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Elon out of Trump administration before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$154
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?Yes 77.7% 218.46 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes 85% 171.47 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 78% 144.87 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?No 34% 294.12 shares
- Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?Yes 54% 307.41 shares
- Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?Yes 61% 272.25 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?Yes 37% 234.46 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes 64% 86.72 shares
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?No 87% 63.83 shares
- Elon out of Trump administration before July?No 63.9% 241.07 shares
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?No 73% 63.84 shares
- Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No 65% 153.85 shares