0xDb45465E6ffD7F6ac5E4B13BF0718c438bB3b5d6-1763483139729

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $688.49
Potential payout: $10.84K
Potential profit: $10.15K
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$21.73

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $901
Potential payout: $10.6K
Potential profit: $9.7K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$614.94

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $279.38
Potential payout: $6.21K
Potential profit: $5.93K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.32K

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $680.35
Potential payout: $6.1K
Potential profit: $5.42K
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: $274.22

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $206.65
Potential payout: $4.44K
Potential profit: $4.24K
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: -$15.55

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $58.09
Potential payout: $4.01K
Potential profit: $3.95K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$663.06

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $23.67
Potential payout: $3.64K
Potential profit: $3.62K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$9.99

SpaceX position

SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $3.42K
Potential payout: $3.48K
Potential profit: $66.16
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $95.72

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.78K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$155

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $410
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.59K
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$410

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $529.99
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$219.98

Yes position

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $80.62
Potential payout: $1.73K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: -$53.13

Yes position

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$10.57

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $18.88
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $232.5
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.27K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$412.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.19K
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $6.56
User PnL: $1.98

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $346.18
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $770.52
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$204.51

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $275
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $825
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $145.05
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $855.28
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$13.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $175.05
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $825.25
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $4.03

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $987
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $295
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $705
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $994.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$23.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.5K

Yes position

Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18K

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95K

Yes position

Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13K

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $622.54

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238.95

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $201.28

Yes position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

Yes position

Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.79

No position

Lighter Airdrop on December 29?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.99

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?