Polymarket Trader

TW.Hayashi

0xdb848b5778c96f1795cf906f32eb11d8fec2335e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $638.97
Realized PnL: $1.78K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $2.2K
User PnL: -$72.6

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $670
Potential profit: $670
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $219.89
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$118.69

No position

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $106.72
Potential payout: $211.33
Potential profit: $104.61
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $6.72

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $37.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $162.1
Multiplier: 5.28x
User PnL: $20.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 34.2%
Current value: $64.89
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $125.12
Multiplier: 2.93x
User PnL: $33.54

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $13.97
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $176.04
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$7.13

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $23.28
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $166.73
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$5.8

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $32.9
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $107.1
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$16.1

Yes position

Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $129.94
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.23

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 57.2%
Current value: $74.35
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $55.65
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $25.21

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.74
Potential profit: $121.74
User PnL: -$29

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.99
Potential profit: $109.99
User PnL: -$56.7

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.64
Potential profit: $108.64
User PnL: -$74.96

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$38

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $99.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $72.95

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $63.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $36.5
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$14.5

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $97.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $2.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $23.5
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $76.49
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$40.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.36

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.01

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.86

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.7

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.9

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.06

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.3

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.07

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.4

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.81

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.58

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.2

Yes position

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.19

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

Australia 44% 10 shares
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance

Switzerland 66.3% 10 shares
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?

Yes 30% 10 shares
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

England 54% 18.52 shares
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Norway 35% 28.57 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 22% 50 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 23% 50 shares
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Egypt (-1.5)

4.1% 47.32 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?

Yes 78% 100 shares
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance

Ecuador 37% 6.57 shares
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance

Mexico 63% 20 shares
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance

Ecuador 38% 13.16 shares