serferer

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $1.64K
Potential payout: $3.69K
Potential profit: $2.05K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$769.04

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.98K
Potential payout: $2.32K
Potential profit: $336.15
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $117.36

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $1.61K
Potential payout: $2.18K
Potential profit: $567.11
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$39.35

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $1.61K
Potential payout: $2.16K
Potential profit: $549.86
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $66.91

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.47K
Potential profit: $1.47K
User PnL: -$768.14

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$750.4

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $970.7
Potential payout: $980.01
Potential profit: $9.31
User PnL: $28.05

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $906.52
Potential profit: $906.52
User PnL: -$229.55

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $664.03
Potential payout: $879.51
Potential profit: $215.48
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $55.76

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $805.5
Potential payout: $817.35
Potential profit: $11.85
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $11.2

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $472.62
Potential payout: $794.31
Potential profit: $321.7
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $81.25

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $588.83
Potential payout: $688.69
Potential profit: $99.86
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.86

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $363.98
Potential payout: $568.72
Potential profit: $204.74
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$7.81

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $561.45
Potential payout: $564.55
Potential profit: $3.11
User PnL: $22.83

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $514.84
Potential payout: $519.51
Potential profit: $4.68
User PnL: $107.16

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $285.5
Potential payout: $456.81
Potential profit: $171.3
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $412.92
Potential profit: $412.92
User PnL: -$86.52

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $394.76
Potential profit: $394.76
User PnL: -$232.69

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $337.18
Potential payout: $380.99
Potential profit: $43.81
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $66.19

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $365.7
Potential profit: $365.7
User PnL: -$234.17

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $353.35
Potential payout: $358.18
Potential profit: $4.84
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $134.18

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $304.6
Potential payout: $323.7
Potential profit: $19.1
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $241.06
Potential payout: $293.97
Potential profit: $52.92
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $4.76

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $106.23
Potential payout: $268.95
Potential profit: $162.71
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $10.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $981.25

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $653.09

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $508.55

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $407.93

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $374.9

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.16

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $300.38

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.53

No position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.07

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $223.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.61

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.75

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.73

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.16

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.05

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.3

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.65

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.95

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.64

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.19

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.82

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.46

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?