Rakij

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $293.27
Potential profit: $293.27
User PnL: -$58.51

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250.01
Potential profit: $250.01
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $175.92
Potential profit: $175.92
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Meta reach $680 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.78
Potential profit: $79.78
User PnL: -$50.51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.72
Potential profit: $64.72
User PnL: -$2.05

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.9%
Current value: $44.09
Potential payout: $56.6
Potential profit: $12.51
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $41.09

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.98
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.73
Potential profit: $42.73
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $13.73
Potential payout: $40.37
Potential profit: $26.64
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $34
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $29.17
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$4.05

No position

Will Meta reach $700 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.11

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.93

No position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $38.7

No position

Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.87

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.67

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.48

Yes position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 19 above $460?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Meta (META) finish week of January 19 above $620?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.54

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 14?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.54

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?