Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $133.29
- Potential payout
- $2.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $10.26
Polymarket Trader
refuri
0xdce7b82e559f649b703765f52c0d49724e9ef553
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $134.97
- Realized PnL
- $423.4
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $194.29
- Potential profit
- $194.29
- User PnL
- -$68
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.67
- Potential payout
- $139.49
- Potential profit
- $137.82
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- $0.67
Yes position
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.75
- Potential profit
- $68.75
- User PnL
- -$11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $134.13
No position
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
Ends Oct 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.66
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.56
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.95
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.76
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- $18.01
Yes position
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.63
No position
New Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.64
Yes position
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.04
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.35
Yes position
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
Ends Jun 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.52
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.39
No position
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.03
Yes position
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.01
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.22
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by October 15?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.96
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.34
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.93
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.52
Yes position
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.01
No position
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89
No position
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.83
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by October 15?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?Yes 9% 100 shares
- Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Yes 16% 68.75 shares
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?Yes 0.7% 139.49 shares
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Yes 6% 2,050.67 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 35% 22.86 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes 4% 1,000 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes 35% 171.43 shares
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes 0.6% 196.41 shares
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Yes 6% 394.18 shares
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Yes 5% 1,451.8 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 3.5% 548 shares