Dima79

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $27.19
Potential payout: $362.5
Potential profit: $335.31
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.81

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $311.45
Potential payout: $351.92
Potential profit: $40.47
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $11.45

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $303.94
Potential payout: $347.36
Potential profit: $43.42
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $33.94

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $334.35
Potential payout: $340.83
Potential profit: $6.48
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $24.35

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $327.83
Potential payout: $338.84
Potential profit: $11.01
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $17.83

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $62.54
Potential payout: $290.86
Potential profit: $228.33
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $22.54

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $217.04
Potential payout: $242.5
Potential profit: $25.46
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $17.04

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $33.91
Potential payout: $218.75
Potential profit: $184.84
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $208.05
Potential payout: $213.17
Potential profit: $5.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $48.05

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $5.62
Potential payout: $178.46
Potential profit: $172.84
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.92
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $134.53
Potential payout: $142.36
Potential profit: $7.83
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $9.53

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $11.81
Potential payout: $112.5
Potential profit: $100.69
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$2.19

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $19.1
Potential payout: $100.5
Potential profit: $81.41
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $57.05
Potential payout: $88.44
Potential profit: $31.4
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $87.58
Potential profit: $81.76
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $13.83
Potential payout: $83.82
Potential profit: $69.99
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $16.13
Potential payout: $45.42
Potential profit: $29.3
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $39.26
Potential payout: $39.47
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $9.26

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $30.19
Potential payout: $38.96
Potential profit: $8.77
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $27.55
Potential payout: $28.85
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.28

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.64

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.51

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET