Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $441
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $2.36K
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$63
Polymarket Trader
benzemacog
0xde0d8b8fce53f25081acf359a0a241949f7db6ca
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.02K
- Realized PnL
- $7.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $329.63
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.79K
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $29.63
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $220.9
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $909.04
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- $20.91
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $71.4
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $928.6
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- -$10.6
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.7%
- Current value
- $196.5
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $803.49
- Multiplier
- 5.09x
- User PnL
- $33.7
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $251.99
- Potential payout
- $899.98
- Potential profit
- $647.98
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$83
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $54.08
- Potential payout
- $831.99
- Potential profit
- $777.91
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$261.92
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $107.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $392.5
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $111.25
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $138.75
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$68.75
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $200.01
- Potential profit
- $199.71
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$15.7
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $173
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $37
No position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$33
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86.5
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Under position
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $47.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $8.5
Spain position
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.07
- Potential profit
- $49.07
- User PnL
- -$25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.45
- User PnL
- -$25
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.29
- Potential profit
- $13.29
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.62
- Potential profit
- $9.62
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $9.09
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.47
- Potential profit
- $8.47
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.89
- Potential profit
- $1.89
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $937.21
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $878.57
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $757.1
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $438.79
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $402.04
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $391.86
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.77
No position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.17
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.9
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.59
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $229.33
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $191.28
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.68
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.87
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.88
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.48
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.69
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.69
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128
No position
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Yes 30% 200 shares
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5Over 21% 100 shares
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5Over 48% 100 shares
- Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Yes 65% 200 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?No 33% 100 shares
- Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5Under 19% 100 shares
- France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Over 32% 100 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.7% 399.99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.9% 230.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 87% 229.89 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 61% 600 shares
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Yes 19% 286.95 shares