0xdea5...46ae

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $8.27
Potential payout: $124.38
Potential profit: $116.1
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $5.39
Potential payout: $118.5
Potential profit: $113.11
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $99.4
Potential profit: $96.27
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$1.84

Yes position

Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $40.37
Potential profit: $40.01
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $1.83
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $37.17
Multiplier: 21.28x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $22.43
Potential payout: $23.52
Potential profit: $1.09
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.67

Yes position

Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $21.06
Potential payout: $21.54
Potential profit: $0.48
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.24

No position

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $17.38
Potential payout: $20.09
Potential profit: $2.71
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2.51

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $9.66
Potential payout: $19.13
Potential profit: $9.47
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $13.1
Potential payout: $14.5
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 41.2%
Current value: $5.38
Potential payout: $13.08
Potential profit: $7.7
Multiplier: 2.43x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $12.97
Potential profit: $2.14
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.23

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $11.6
Potential profit: $1.91
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $7.53
Potential payout: $11.5
Potential profit: $3.97
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $9.94
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $1.55
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $10.63
Potential payout: $10.8
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.68

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $6.32
Potential payout: $7.54
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.42

Yes position

Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $5.08
Potential payout: $6.43
Potential profit: $1.35
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $5.99
Potential payout: $6.04
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $5.29
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 24, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $4.7
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will ITG's market cap be between $3.9B and $4.5B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $3.37
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $4.31
Potential profit: $3.6
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$1.66

No position

Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.6B?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $1.53
Potential payout: $2.57
Potential profit: $1.04
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.63

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $11.74

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $3.11

No position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Implied probability: 91%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.4

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $1.99

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89

Yes position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 80 and 85?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $0.47

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Gilbert Tyuienon be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Paul Dennett win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 24, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?