Polymarket Trader

SPLPB

0xdf0e455ca4896232ba935a8176e5e8cfbb38c02b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $925.23
Realized PnL: $100.25
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $4.92
Potential payout: $492
Potential profit: $487.08
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$4.43

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the SC-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $32.85
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $405.15
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.57

No position

Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $27
Potential payout: $360
Potential profit: $333
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$5.4

No position

Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $36.8
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $283.2
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Curaçao be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $3.12
Potential payout: $297
Potential profit: $293.88
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$2.82

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $25.7
Potential payout: $257
Potential profit: $231.3
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$7.71

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9.54
Potential payout: $212
Potential profit: $202.46
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$5.3

Yes position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $25.11
Potential payout: $205
Potential profit: $179.89
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$1.74

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $12.48
Potential payout: $199.62
Potential profit: $187.14
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$0.3

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $170.44
Potential payout: $178
Potential profit: $7.56
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$1.87

No position

Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 88.2%
Current value: $151.62
Potential payout: $172
Potential profit: $20.38
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.95

No position

Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 91.1%
Current value: $145.76
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $14.24
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$5.44

No position

Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $11.62
Potential payout: $159.13
Potential profit: $147.51
Multiplier: 13.70x
User PnL: -$1.91

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $10.28
Potential payout: $137
Potential profit: $126.73
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.16

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $130.63
Potential profit: $126.38
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $116
Potential profit: $107.3
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.9

No position

Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $5.18
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $109.83
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.72

No position

Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $38.19
Potential payout: $114
Potential profit: $75.81
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$2.85

Yes position

Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

Ends Jun 6, 2027

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $18.9
Potential payout: $108
Potential profit: $89.1
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$10.26

No position

Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.1
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $36
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $64
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$16

No position

Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $19.2
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $76.8
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$8.64

No position

Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $48.83
Potential payout: $93
Potential profit: $44.18
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$3.26

Yes position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $73.87
Potential payout: $89
Potential profit: $15.13
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$2.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.94

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.87

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 33.7%
Multiplier: 2.97x
User PnL: $6.55

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $5.01

No position

Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.15

No position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $3.56

No position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.34

No position

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $3.07

No position

Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Multiplier: 39.22x
User PnL: $2.59

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $2.55

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.43

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.27

Yes position

Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $2.14

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $1.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30?

Yes 1% 29 shares
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?

No 92% 21 shares
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 43% 4.01 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Yes 20% 204.71 shares
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 6.2% 13 shares
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

Yes 59% 37 shares
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Yes 24% 98.88 shares
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 18% 203.01 shares
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 5.1% 60 shares
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Yes 24% 148.4 shares
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

No 87.6% 30.83 shares
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 78% 64 shares