Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $558.79K
- Potential payout
- $559.63K
- Potential profit
- $839.44
- User PnL
- $287.34K
Polymarket Trader
PatrocIus
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.2M
- Realized PnL
- $790.66K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $317.92K
- Potential payout
- $318.4K
- Potential profit
- $477.6
- User PnL
- $91.74K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $83.7K
- Potential payout
- $95.65K
- Potential profit
- $11.96K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $14.66K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $57.13K
- Potential payout
- $66.05K
- Potential profit
- $8.92K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.64K
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.4%
- Current value
- $7.85K
- Potential payout
- $58.77K
- Potential profit
- $50.92K
- Multiplier
- 7.49x
- User PnL
- $1.55K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $33.11K
- Potential payout
- $40.37K
- Potential profit
- $7.27K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $2.43K
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $150.58
- Potential payout
- $25.1K
- Potential profit
- $24.95K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$470.61
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $7.79K
- Potential payout
- $22.57K
- Potential profit
- $14.79K
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$880.01
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $18.78K
- Potential payout
- $22.49K
- Potential profit
- $3.71K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$92.14
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $16.37K
- Potential payout
- $20.09K
- Potential profit
- $3.72K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $100.27
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $17.32K
- Potential payout
- $18.73K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $291.38
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $12.47K
- Potential payout
- $15.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.65K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$281.1
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $32.3
- Potential payout
- $12.92K
- Potential profit
- $12.89K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.26K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $10.44K
- Potential payout
- $12.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $12.03K
- Potential profit
- $10.75K
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- $216.93
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $10.83K
- Potential payout
- $11.7K
- Potential profit
- $877.84
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $670.32
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $10.38K
- Potential payout
- $10.53K
- Potential profit
- $142.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $976.41
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $7.38K
- Potential payout
- $10.47K
- Potential profit
- $3.09K
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $3.7K
- Potential payout
- $7.78K
- Potential profit
- $4.09K
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $630.28
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $5.26K
- Potential payout
- $6.97K
- Potential profit
- $1.71K
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$679.7
No position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $5.62K
- Potential payout
- $6.08K
- Potential profit
- $456
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $98.11
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $5.62K
- Potential payout
- $5.98K
- Potential profit
- $358.62
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$64.5
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $5.67K
- Potential payout
- $5.88K
- Potential profit
- $208.6
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $691.86
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $4.72K
- Potential payout
- $4.92K
- Potential profit
- $201.62
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $75.21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $162.58K
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $76.9K
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54.28K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.87K
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $49.75K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.39K
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.72K
No position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.14K
Yes position
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.28K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $23.51K
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.41K
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.21K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.24K
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.99K
Yes position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.17K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $18.22K
Yes position
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.9K
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.82K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.15K
Yes position
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.3K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.06K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.96K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.42K
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.4K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Yes 93.3% 2,178.68 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 31% 855.43 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 7% 5,268.02 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 8% 20 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 9.8% 1,780.16 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 9.2% 7,402.74 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.7% 10,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 7.3% 4,958.19 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 81.3% 14,594.89 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 78% 4,034 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 75% 114.09 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 81.7% 753.37 shares