No position
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.1K
- Potential profit
- $24.1K
- User PnL
- -$24.1
Polymarket Trader
a9412b
0xdf49d69d1cf70a785d635d3b02bb387ce43c286d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $762.21
- Realized PnL
- $693.83
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.9%
- Current value
- $762.21
- Potential payout
- $8.61K
- Potential profit
- $7.85K
- Multiplier
- 11.30x
- User PnL
- -$895.94
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $578.91
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- $299.85
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $71.43
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $71.06
OpenAI position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $45.71
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.77
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.29
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.66
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.52
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.25
Yes position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.61
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$11.89
Yes position
TikTok sale announced by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.43
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$23.18
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27.14
Yes position
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27.44
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$31.61
Yes position
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$38.79
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$41.6
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$47
Yes position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$137.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 19.3% 8,612.57 shares
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI 25% 653 shares
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI 18% 653 shares
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes 6.9% 1,826.55 shares
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes 9% 1,826.56 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 63% 1,565.05 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes 13% 9,994.9 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 8% 2,158.95 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 54.7% 783.01 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 45.6% 783.02 shares
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?Yes 38.3% 405.16 shares
- Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?Yes 10.2% 1,344.63 shares