No position
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $397.95
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $22.05
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$14.07
Polymarket Trader
cashmusk
@vonjean41
0xdf4a1557e64c8c4dfc305f45764c6c3487bb1b1b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.24K
- Realized PnL
- $913.05
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $379.91
- Potential payout
- $382.4
- Potential profit
- $2.49
- User PnL
- $2.19
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $155.92
- Potential payout
- $156
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $115.13
- Potential payout
- $116
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- User PnL
- $9.09
No position
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $96.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $3.2
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $96.59
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $3.4
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Mariners position
Tigers vs. Mariners
Ends Oct 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $660
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.91
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.3
Yes position
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?
Ends Jan 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.74
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.6
No position
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.41
Yes position
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.24
No position
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.9
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.65
No position
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.94
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.61
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.56
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.02
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.47
No position
Trump out as President by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87
No position
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.24
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.6% 104 shares
- Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?No 99.1% 100 shares
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 98.1% 420 shares
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 98.8% 100 shares
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No 98.8% 382.4 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 97.1% 52 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 91.4% 116 shares
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?No 98.5% 50 shares
- Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 98% 536.79 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 2?No 99.7% 352 shares
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 31?No 99% 135.07 shares
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Yes 94% 100 shares