No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $68.64
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- $19.45
Polymarket Trader
variant1.meta
0xdf59c7f09a1f0fe407a9fb48f7282012398adeb0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.41K
- Realized PnL
- $2.64K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$303
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $580
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $220
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700.18
- Potential profit
- $700.18
- User PnL
- -$400.55
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.8%
- Current value
- $626.55
- Potential payout
- $675.53
- Potential profit
- $48.98
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $45.61
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $582.76
- Potential payout
- $623.61
- Potential profit
- $40.85
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $39.87
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $452.35
- Potential payout
- $551.64
- Potential profit
- $99.3
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $40.07
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $419.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $80.75
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $312.01
- Potential payout
- $400.01
- Potential profit
- $88
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $56
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $399.8
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- User PnL
- $39.8
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $305.04
- Potential payout
- $358.87
- Potential profit
- $53.83
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $5.04
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $310.75
- Potential payout
- $318.23
- Potential profit
- $7.48
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $28.51
Yes position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $6.15
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $293.85
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$20.85
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $87
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $213
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$54
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$247
OpenAI position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $79.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $220.5
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $244.73
- Potential payout
- $282.93
- Potential profit
- $38.2
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $19.73
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $216.25
- Potential payout
- $250.01
- Potential profit
- $33.75
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $18.75
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $193.31
- Potential payout
- $249.43
- Potential profit
- $56.12
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $201.21
- Potential payout
- $232.61
- Potential profit
- $31.4
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.21
No position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $126
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $74
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $8
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $62.05
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $107.95
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$7.65
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159.01
- Potential profit
- $159.01
- User PnL
- -$122.34
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $135
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $15
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.99
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.41
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.17
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $196.7
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151
No position
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- $123.32
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $111
No position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $109.33
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.6
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.4
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.75
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.78x
- User PnL
- $86.1
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.35
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.33
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.9
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60.49
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $58.5
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $49.13
No position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.15
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.44
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.37
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 43.7% 300 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 20.4% 110 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 19.2% 300 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 55% 159.25 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 73% 200 shares
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes 28% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 64% 24.06 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 5% 10 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?No 41% 40 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?No 49.7% 100 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No 94% 110.04 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes 83% 100 shares