Polymarket Trader

pfahler

0xdf696ac18c064be09e50a20200019f547fa52a9b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $11
Realized PnL: $10.31
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.38
Potential profit: $25.38
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $11.07
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $5.43
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.52

Sinner position

Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $1.67
Potential payout: $3.63
Potential profit: $1.96
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $2.7
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $1.47
User PnL: -$0.99

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.11

No position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $1.1
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.93

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET

Ends Mar 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29

No position

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Will Leavitt say "Air" or "Land" or "Sea" 3+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-09?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will "Dude" be said 5+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

No position

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Ends Mar 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

EU dissolves before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.9%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will Leavitt say "Make Iran Great Again" during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.18

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?

No 67% 1.47 shares
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?

Sinner 49% 2.04 shares
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Yes 40% 2.5 shares
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Yes 37% 2.7 shares
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Yes 13% 7.69 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.8% 14.28 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

No 61% 1.64 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

No 88% 1.14 shares
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Yes 10% 10 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 15.6% 6.41 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 7% 14.29 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 15.6% 6.41 shares