Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $432
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.77K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$240
Polymarket Trader
Arielf
0xdf75e62fb0750bf9a9fe143cb0bf64d6fea565cb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $434.63
- Realized PnL
- $1.89K
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 9
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $19
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $2.64
- Potential payout
- $15.06
- Potential profit
- $12.42
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$11.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $978.64
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $800
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.74
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.86
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.05
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$78
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$182
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 44% 45 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 44% 22 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?Yes 30% 19 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 43% 3.15 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 26% 700 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?No 39% 190.24 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 52% 24 shares
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?No 98.7% 1,100 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes 75% 15 shares
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?No 92% 1,100 shares
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes 24% 15.06 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Yes 43% 81 shares