Polymarket Trader

4631874368

0xdfb071e30e79968ebb80c415ae3b7ce1fcf3d1dd

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.5
Realized PnL: $417.2
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $230
User PnL: -$5.29

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $170
User PnL: -$16.17

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $2.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.8
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.15
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.26
Potential profit: $89.26
User PnL: -$17.1

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.48
Potential profit: $76.48
User PnL: -$12.97

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.97
Potential profit: $55.97
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $55
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $49.99
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.75
Potential profit: $39.75
User PnL: -$2.55

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.26

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $4.35
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $25.65
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$4.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.11

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.38

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.07

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.94

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.01

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.29

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.33

Yes position

Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.95

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.63

Dimitar Kuzmanov position

Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman Fatic

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.89

Edas Butvilas position

Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Pol Martin Tiffon

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.84

Yes position

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.04

Yes position

Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

No position

Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.98

Yes position

Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.92

Mavericks position

Bulls vs. Mavericks

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Alex Hernandez position

Morelos: Alex Hernandez vs Tibo Colson

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.67

Rockford IceHogs position

AHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Rockford IceHogs

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.47

Rio Noguchi position

Yokkaichi: Tung-Lin Wu vs Rio Noguchi

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.33

Trail Blazers position

Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.3

Hawks position

Bucks vs. Hawks

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.11

Sharks position

Blues vs. Sharks

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Yes 63.1% 10 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 21.5% 46.48 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 15% 24.32 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Yes 20.6% 24.32 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

No 66% 18 shares
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

No 95.4% 11.23 shares
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Yes 99.9% 5 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Yes 33% 30 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?

No 0.1% 5 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 99.1% 11.22 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 22.3% 22.42 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Yes 32.5% 6.28 shares