vermeshel

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $915
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $795.27
Potential profit: $795.27
User PnL: -$30.8

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $602
Potential profit: $602
User PnL: -$1.42

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $557.4
Potential profit: $557.4
User PnL: -$70.08

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $526.96
Potential profit: $526.96
User PnL: -$8.69

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$6.7

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $335
Potential profit: $335
User PnL: -$30.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$9.9

Yes position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $300
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $252

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$9.3

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $210
User PnL: -$11.18

No position

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $200
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $14.1

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $200
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$6.92

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $123.58
Potential payout: $123.58
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $89.46

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $114.7
Potential payout: $114.7
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $79.35

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $103
Potential payout: $103
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $63.86

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.75
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$5.75

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6.4

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$17.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.32

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.6

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.51

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.98

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.62

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.39

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.16

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 10?