User175

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $5.92K
Potential payout: $6.54K
Potential profit: $620.93
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $493.05

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.46K
Potential profit: $6.46K
User PnL: -$3.22K

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $5.29K
Potential payout: $6.04K
Potential profit: $755.18
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $129.16

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $3K
Potential payout: $3.51K
Potential profit: $508.61
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $522.06

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.32K
Potential profit: $3.32K
User PnL: -$150

Khamzat Chimaev position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.75K
User PnL: -$1.39K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $938.5
Potential profit: $938.5
User PnL: -$500

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $581.23
Potential payout: $660.48
Potential profit: $79.26
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $90.99

No position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $520.43
Potential payout: $601.65
Potential profit: $81.22
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $112.37

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $344.78
Potential profit: $344.78
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $191.1
Potential payout: $275
Potential profit: $83.9
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$12.65

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $186.47
Potential profit: $186.47
User PnL: -$108.15

Tatsuro Taira position

UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $163.94
Potential profit: $163.94
User PnL: -$100

Joaquin Buckley position

UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.06
Potential profit: $155.06
User PnL: -$100

No position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $135.61
Potential payout: $154.98
Potential profit: $19.37
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $18.29

No position

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $135.29
Potential payout: $150.32
Potential profit: $15.03
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $18.29

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $123.85
Potential payout: $139.16
Potential profit: $15.31
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $24.89

No position

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $110.76
Potential payout: $126.58
Potential profit: $15.82
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $10.76

Jeremy Stephens position

UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.05
Potential profit: $119.05
User PnL: -$25

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $115.38
User PnL: -$60

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$10

No position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $45.06
Potential payout: $50.63
Potential profit: $5.57
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.06

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.47K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $6.05K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.83K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.81K

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $981.67

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $909.42

No position

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $776.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $774.88

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $746.93

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $652.21

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $641.88

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $606.4

No position

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $571.71

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $561.43

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Spurs

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $502.17

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $453.6

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $451.2

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $444.18

No position

Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.84

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $371.85

No position

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?