AS57289568

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.16K
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: $142.95

No position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $835.99
Potential profit: $835.99
User PnL: -$36.44

Yes position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $20.8
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $779.2
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$179.2

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $52.7
Potential payout: $479.12
Potential profit: $426.42
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$271.83

No position

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.2%
Current value: $345.81
Potential payout: $401.17
Potential profit: $55.36
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $366
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $34
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $18

No position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $301.78
Potential payout: $355.03
Potential profit: $53.25
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$7.1

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $5.96
Potential payout: $270.83
Potential profit: $264.87
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$102.37

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$235

Up position

DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.99
Potential profit: $208.99
User PnL: -$43.8

No position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $188
Potential profit: $188
User PnL: -$54.52

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $68
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $92
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$5.6

No position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $125.13
Potential payout: $125.19
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $17.2

No position

Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 16, 2027

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $67.01
Potential payout: $107.21
Potential profit: $40.2
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$15.55

No position

Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $92.03
Potential payout: $104.58
Potential profit: $12.55
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.6
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$12.6

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.04
Potential profit: $99.04
User PnL: -$75.27

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $6.83
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $28.18
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $25.34
Potential profit: $20.4
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$2.66

No position

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $13.55
Potential payout: $16.52
Potential profit: $2.97
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$0.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $469.9

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7000 (HIGH) in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.56

No position

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.88

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.6

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.37

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $291.89

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.06

No position

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $258.68

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.25

No position

Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $7.00 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.86

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.82

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.42

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $127.5

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.86

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.58

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.32

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.78

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.72

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.76

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.15

No position

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.35

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,700 in January?