ApollowVL

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $483.68
Potential profit: $483.44
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on June 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $436
Potential profit: $436
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $384.15
Potential profit: $383.58
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.42

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $266.49
Potential profit: $265.69
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$9.2

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $222
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$1.78

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $193.66
Potential profit: $193.66
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.01
Potential payout: $161
Potential profit: $158.99
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$2.99

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $133.7
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $130.66
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$9.08

Yes position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $108.33
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$7.22

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.85
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.85

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $99.78
Potential profit: $99.49
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$14.7

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.45
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Netanyahu out by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $78.24
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $73.63
Potential profit: $73.18
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.56

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $72.86
Potential profit: $72.75
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.89

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $67.57
Potential profit: $67.13
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.56

Yes position

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $2.51
Potential payout: $65.1
Potential profit: $62.59
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $61.06
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$13.56

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $56.6
Potential profit: $54.37
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $54.64
Potential profit: $54.07
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$9.43

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $47.88
Potential profit: $44.98
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$7.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.86

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $21.09

Yes position

Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.02

Yes position

Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.33

Yes position

Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.27

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.03

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $2.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.57

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.44

Yes position

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: $1.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?