easierthanmanifold

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $475.11
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$13.44

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $974.55
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $25.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $87.67

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$294.99

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $991.49
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $14.88
Potential payout: $991.82
Potential profit: $976.94
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $2.47

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $19.03
Potential payout: $692.11
Potential profit: $673.08
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $575.1
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $24.9
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $77.1

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$19.5

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $12.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $487.75
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $4.75

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $450.36
Potential payout: $464.53
Potential profit: $14.17
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $14.92

Yes position

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $420.05
Potential profit: $419.84
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$13.8

No position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $230.41
Potential payout: $309.28
Potential profit: $78.87
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $45.71

Yes position

Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $5.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $294.45
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$10.35

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $118.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $181.5
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $16.5

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 44.7%
Current value: $133.95
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $166.05
Multiplier: 2.24x
User PnL: $27.55

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $6.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $293.85
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$12.45

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $280.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $29.5

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $8.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $291.45
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$30.45

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $181.5
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $118.5
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $22.5

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $18.75
Potential payout: $281.92
Potential profit: $263.17
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $13.67

No position

Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $153.93
Potential payout: $229.74
Potential profit: $75.81
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $29.33

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $197.5
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $938.3

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.78

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.82

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.19

No position

Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.7

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

Yes position

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43

No position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 92.9%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $35.4

No position

Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.3

No position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.84

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

No position

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.88

No position

Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.99

No position

Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.02

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $22

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.5

Yes position

Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.27

No position

Anthropic acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.74

Yes position

Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.64

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.32

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.54

No position

Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?