Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $194.43
- Potential payout
- $2.34K
- Potential profit
- $2.15K
- Multiplier
- 12.05x
- User PnL
- -$310.32
Polymarket Trader
esc194467
0xe1db8616948c39e774b3492b5684c666b94269c8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $194.43
- Realized PnL
- -$133.91
- Win rate
- 16.7%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $674.5
- Potential profit
- $674.5
- User PnL
- -$328.9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.4%
- Multiplier
- 2.48x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.69
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$5.71
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$6.48
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.58
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.28
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$29.57
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$34.04
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 21.5% 2,342.58 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 17% 2,969.2 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?No 59% 381.47 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 15% 1,500.45 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 18.7% 156.45 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 90% 32.58 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 19.4% 451.06 shares
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes 47.4% 185.01 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 19% 892.95 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes 35% 483.68 shares
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes 54% 185.02 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No 61% 163.93 shares