purebaby

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $88.09
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $52.89
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $2.39

Yes position

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $26.8
Potential payout: $974.71
Potential profit: $947.91
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $6.39

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $58.67
Potential payout: $902.64
Potential profit: $843.97
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$7.61

Yes position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $83.23
Potential payout: $832.32
Potential profit: $749.09
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$10.92

Yes position

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $32.06
Potential payout: $582.84
Potential profit: $550.78
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$10.96

Yes position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $32.58
Potential payout: $543.08
Potential profit: $510.5
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$48.61

Yes position

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $28.81
Potential payout: $523.76
Potential profit: $494.95
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Trump goes to space in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $10.62
Potential payout: $518.29
Potential profit: $507.67
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$4.92

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $6.29
Potential payout: $465.64
Potential profit: $459.36
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $26.33
Potential payout: $405.14
Potential profit: $378.8
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$4.32

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $18.46
Potential payout: $335.6
Potential profit: $317.15
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $9.32
Potential payout: $333.01
Potential profit: $323.69
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $6.64
Potential payout: $324.05
Potential profit: $317.41
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $17.04
Potential payout: $309.78
Potential profit: $292.74
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $30.89
Potential payout: $268.63
Potential profit: $237.74
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$2.46

Yes position

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $18.47
Potential payout: $263.8
Potential profit: $245.34
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $15.33
Potential payout: $253.34
Potential profit: $238.01
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$5.35

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $10.23
Potential payout: $210.84
Potential profit: $200.61
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$6.64

Yes position

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $14.47
Potential payout: $192.91
Potential profit: $178.44
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $18.12
Potential payout: $164.76
Potential profit: $146.64
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$10.79

Yes position

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $6.51
Potential payout: $158.86
Potential profit: $152.35
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $7.48
Potential payout: $136.03
Potential profit: $128.55
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $7.23
Potential payout: $131.53
Potential profit: $124.3
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.66

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $997.87

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $744.58

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: $732.37

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $626.15

Yes position

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $548.89

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $532.07

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $472.04

Yes position

Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $467.86

Yes position

US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $466.64

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $457.19

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $453.67

Yes position

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $422.32

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $244.35

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.27

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $243.21

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $241.34

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $237.8

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $224.79

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $224.71

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?