Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $6.11K
- Potential payout
- $6.68K
- Potential profit
- $567.63
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$105.32
Polymarket Trader
ExcaIibur
0xe2bfd02d9977bb53e5b9abf6e70b49264d0f75b5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.82K
- Realized PnL
- $6.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $4.76K
- Potential payout
- $4.91K
- Potential profit
- $152.18
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $32.84
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $2.42K
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $183.54
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $364.02
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $2.01K
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $94.93
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $105.74
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $904.87
- Potential payout
- $999.86
- Potential profit
- $94.99
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $70.72
Yes position
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $561
- Potential payout
- $680
- Potential profit
- $119
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $13.59
- Potential payout
- $438.32
- Potential profit
- $424.74
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$86.41
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $39.9
- Potential payout
- $142.5
- Potential profit
- $102.6
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$9.98
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $953.18
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $618.82
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $366.2
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $357.34
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.36
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289.36
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.99
Yes position
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.54
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.54
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $256.36
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.62
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.47
No position
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.45
Yes position
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.58
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.49
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.92
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $160.14
Yes position
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.46
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $138.75
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.95
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.44
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $119.37
No position
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.74
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 96.2% 50 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 79.3% 176.58 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 79% 20 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 86.7% 853.35 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 38.9% 10.68 shares
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Yes 93% 231.94 shares
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Yes 93.1% 6,446.07 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 99.8% 490.9 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 55% 90.91 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 36.3% 690 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.1% 207.37 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes 4% 981.3 shares