fanghu

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $640
Potential profit: $640
User PnL: -$116.8

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $51
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $249
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$34

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $99.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $97.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $2.75
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$19

No position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $98.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $62.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $41.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $58.5
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $69.49
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $30.51
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $13.49

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $66.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $33.5
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$10.5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $99.59
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $0.4
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$17

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $75.49
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $24.5
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$39.6

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$6.85

No position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $45.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $4.88
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $29.6
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$19.2

No position

Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$14.4

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$16.25

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.24
Potential profit: $23.24
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.35
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$2.85

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Ethereum flipped in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 6-12?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29

70k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $26

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $18

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $16

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.6

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.8

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 15?