No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.62K
- Potential profit
- $3.62K
- User PnL
- -$464.38
Polymarket Trader
insightrole
0xe2e2d098873d823181e32388b3f5c8282a2f38a0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.48K
- Realized PnL
- $895.41
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $172.8
- Potential payout
- $1.92K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$72.79
No position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $499.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $433.71
- Potential payout
- $435.23
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- User PnL
- $7.22
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $255.45
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $4.55
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.64
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $222.18
- Potential payout
- $224.99
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.84
No position
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $199.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $182.77
- Potential payout
- $183.97
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $175.8
- Potential payout
- $176.06
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $149.33
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $148.2
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $12.6
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $140.95
- Potential payout
- $141.59
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $108.24
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $1.76
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $109.95
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $99.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- User PnL
- -$0.05
N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $89.69
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $66.07
- Potential payout
- $69
- Potential profit
- $2.93
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.28
No position
Will jL win a trophy by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $61.96
- Potential payout
- $62.05
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $8.7
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $51.3
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$22.5
No position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $49.53
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $49.33
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $29.72
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $22.78
- Potential payout
- $23.99
- Potential profit
- $1.21
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $680.4
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.17
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.3
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.5
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes 93.8% 23.99 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 99.5% 40 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 99.4% 1.19 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?No 99.7% 100 shares
- Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?No 99.9% 100 shares
- Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 99.8% 100 shares
- Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 99.9% 100 shares
- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 99% 10 shares
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 95.5% 10 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?No 99.8% 10 shares
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 99.1% 50 shares
- Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 99% 50 shares