28lad

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700.46
Potential profit: $700.46
User PnL: -$4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $671
Potential profit: $671
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.48
Potential profit: $217.48
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $163.54
Potential profit: $160.76
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: $1.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.15
Potential profit: $148.15
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.99
Potential profit: $119.99
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.99
Potential profit: $85.99
User PnL: -$3.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.26
Potential profit: $82.26
User PnL: -$3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.8
Potential profit: $75.8
User PnL: -$5.99

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.5
Potential profit: $75.5
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.31
Potential profit: $37.31
User PnL: -$5.13

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.23
Potential profit: $33.23
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.94
Potential profit: $29.94
User PnL: -$2.99

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 9AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.02
Potential profit: $22.02
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $19.66
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $0.18

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.68
Potential profit: $20.68
User PnL: -$2.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.55

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.31

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.41

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET