MarcGarcia

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $478
Potential profit: $476.81
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$5.98

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.17
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$29.83

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $38.43
Potential payout: $307.45
Potential profit: $269.02
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$51.57

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $14.37
Potential payout: $221.11
Potential profit: $206.74
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$37.63

Yes position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $69.8
Potential payout: $183.68
Potential profit: $113.88
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: -$30.2

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $23.79
Potential payout: $176.25
Potential profit: $152.46
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$33.21

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $79.78
Potential payout: $171.57
Potential profit: $91.79
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $29.78

Yes position

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.89
Potential profit: $138.89
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $21.67
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $89.44
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $5.16
Potential payout: $104.17
Potential profit: $99.01
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $20.45
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $70.45
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $10.45

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Ends Jan 29, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.29
Potential payout: $85.72
Potential profit: $78.43
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7.71

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $12.08
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $71.25
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $9.62
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $67.31
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $50.77
Potential payout: $61.54
Potential profit: $10.77
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $8.69
Potential payout: $51.13
Potential profit: $42.44
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $26
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: $4

No position

Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $20.08
Potential payout: $42.71
Potential profit: $22.64
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.9%
Current value: $5.02
Potential payout: $42.37
Potential profit: $37.35
Multiplier: 8.44x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $21.81
Potential payout: $35.47
Potential profit: $13.65
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $1.81

Yes position

Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $4.26
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $25.15
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $5.58
Potential payout: $28.25
Potential profit: $22.67
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $20.84
Potential profit: $10.94
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.55

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.85

Yes position

Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.22

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 95.2%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $61.39

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.38

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $52.63

Yes position

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.63

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $30.17

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.7

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.04

Yes position

Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.02

No position

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $17.46

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.75

Yes position

Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.41

Yes position

Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.29

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $15.09

Yes position

ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.12

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.57

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.08

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.51

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?