Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $972.51
- Potential payout
- $14.96K
- Potential profit
- $13.99K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.78K
Polymarket Trader
aybigspender
0xe3c5cbd76013a90cddd720773ce4ad5ca6d5a0f3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.03K
- Realized PnL
- $22.84K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $909.09
- Potential profit
- $909.09
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $19.4
- Potential payout
- $825.74
- Potential profit
- $806.33
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$5.59
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $277.78
- Potential profit
- $277.78
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $39.82
- Potential payout
- $156.15
- Potential profit
- $116.33
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$10.18
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.42
- Potential profit
- $56.42
- User PnL
- -$40.62
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.71K
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
Yes position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.8
Yes position
US military action on Yemen before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.25
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.97
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $253.56
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.23
Yes position
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $125.43
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.39
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.72
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.59
Yes position
Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.08
Yes position
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.86
No position
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.84
No position
Israel strikes Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.76
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.62
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.79
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.76
Yes position
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.94
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.47
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.53
No position
Netanyahu out by 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.22
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $11.35
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.53
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Yes 34.3% 58.31 shares
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Yes 30.7% 97.84 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?Yes 3% 825.74 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 16.4% 401.17 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yes 5% 208.33 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 20% 1,149.55 shares
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?Yes 11.9% 1,928.53 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 21% 3,242.67 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 9% 7,566.2 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 20% 772.25 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 3.1% 5,060.61 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 19.5% 2,479.64 shares