Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.74K
- Potential profit
- $35.74K
- User PnL
- -$10.45K
Polymarket Trader
Winner123456789
0xe46767426083d8357045a0c4f40dd9f01d61437f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.16K
- Realized PnL
- $31.2K
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$600
Yes position
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.5K
- Potential profit
- $9.5K
- User PnL
- -$999.99
Yes position
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.99K
- Potential profit
- $6.99K
- User PnL
- -$1.5K
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.99K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$285
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.32K
- Potential profit
- $5.32K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.5K
- Potential profit
- $4.5K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.64K
- Potential profit
- $3.64K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $3.09K
- User PnL
- -$1K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.43K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- User PnL
- -$510
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.77K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- User PnL
- -$700
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $256.07
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- -$43.93
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$632.06
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $158.33
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.51K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$141.67
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $13.97
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$86.03
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Current value
- $282.08
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 4.90x
- User PnL
- -$17.92
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $36.46
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.34K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$463.54
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $167.74
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$232.26
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $230.37
- Potential payout
- $755.31
- Potential profit
- $524.94
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$69.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.11K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $758.79
Yes position
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $147.35
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $101.15
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.77
No position
Joe Kent charged by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$38.82
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$41.42
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$94.85
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$99.99
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the US strike Mexico next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the US strike Yemen next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the US strike Cuba next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?Yes 6.1% 1,647.36 shares
- Kurds declare independence from Iran?Yes 6.4% 1,551.97 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 18% 1,666.67 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 5% 6,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes 5.5% 3,636.36 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes 35% 1,429.48 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 20% 2,000.14 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Yes 11.1% 4,503.89 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 36.3% 1,376 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 9% 1,111.11 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes 28% 357.14 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 45.9% 436.13 shares