Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $10.99
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$9.01
Polymarket Trader
Adcade
0xe5564619d9c52bee39a753e18b8ff54df4024922
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $70.28
- Realized PnL
- -$185.75
- Win rate
- 40%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $8.99
- Potential payout
- $719.29
- Potential profit
- $710.29
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Y
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $22.42
- Potential payout
- $151
- Potential profit
- $128.58
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- -$1.74
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $40.75
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $18.63
- Potential payout
- $39.22
- Potential profit
- $20.59
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$1.37
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $20.91
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.47
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.32
No position
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Yes position
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.87
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?Yes 16% 151 shares
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 1.4% 719.29 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 1% 1,998.56 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 20% 50 shares
- Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 99.9% 12.51 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 98.9% 31.25 shares
- Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 79.9% 12.52 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 32% 31.25 shares
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes 51% 39.22 shares
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes 53.4% 37.47 shares
- Government shutdown on Saturday?Yes 83% 12.05 shares
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?No 24.5% 9.01 shares