No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $2.79K
- Potential payout
- $5.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.23K
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $619.91
Polymarket Trader
Noahrichards98
0xe57ab8ec1bd537476c1986e9768fbbc2ec99e196
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.24K
- Realized PnL
- $5.29K
- Win rate
- 93.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $3.33K
- Potential payout
- $3.35K
- Potential profit
- $28.51
- User PnL
- $648.89
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $281.67
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$917.71
Yes position
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- User PnL
- -$935.13
No position
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $795.29
- Potential payout
- $963.99
- Potential profit
- $168.7
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $67.7
No position
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $609
- Potential profit
- $609
- User PnL
- -$109.03
No position
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $526.22
- Potential profit
- $526.22
- User PnL
- -$208.33
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $441.2
- Potential profit
- $441.2
- User PnL
- -$288.52
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$195
Yes position
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.54
- Potential profit
- $158.54
- User PnL
- -$52.44
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.8%
- Current value
- $50.25
- Potential payout
- $72
- Potential profit
- $21.75
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $18.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $883.67
No position
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $644.2
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.07
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $422.02
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282.28
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.51
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.34
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.54
No position
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $192.83
Yes position
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.28
Yes position
Will Elon Musk testify against Altman?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.09
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.6
No position
Chirayu Rana fired?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$47.97
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?No 74.3% 513.99 shares
- Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?No 76.8% 450 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?No 51.8% 1,500 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?No 39.5% 3,519.09 shares
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Yes 87% 700.2 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 92% 896 shares
- Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?Yes 66% 1,416.86 shares
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes 74% 94 shares
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes 73% 25 shares
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No 15% 473 shares
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?Yes 44% 72 shares
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No 28% 6 shares