dreamharder

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $216.37
Potential profit: $216.37
User PnL: -$70

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.71
Potential profit: $190.71
User PnL: -$83.25

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.89
Potential profit: $113.89
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.11
Potential profit: $108.11
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on January 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.46
Potential profit: $105.46
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $66.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $33.5
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $46.5

Yes position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $2.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.35
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$2.35

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $84.46
Potential profit: $84.46
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be less than 40.0 on January 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.61
Potential profit: $60.61
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $57.69
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $8.94
Potential payout: $54.19
Potential profit: $45.25
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$11.06

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $50.51
Potential payout: $50.51
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $30.51

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.61
Potential profit: $45.61
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.28
Potential profit: $42.28
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $42
User PnL: -$2.06

No position

Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.88
Potential profit: $33.88
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $33.33
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $18.33

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.84
Potential profit: $31.84
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.41
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.75
Potential profit: $18.75
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.18

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.09

No position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.49

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.44

No position

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.6

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.98

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.33

No position

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.98

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.23

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.14

Yes position

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.3

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.31

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.75

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

No position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.81

No position

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.29

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.69

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.44

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.19

Yes position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?