Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $7.86
- Potential payout
- $66.88
- Potential profit
- $59.02
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $1.3
Polymarket Trader
0xe5b1...ca96
0xe5b1127e95ba936fa4cb81ce6b5b998fd950ca96
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $55.19
- Realized PnL
- $193.07
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $3.94
- Potential payout
- $46.31
- Potential profit
- $42.37
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $22.49
- Potential payout
- $26
- Potential profit
- $3.51
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $3.91
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $8.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $8.41
- Potential payout
- $8.53
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.9%
- Current value
- $4.3
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.42
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.65
No position
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.82
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.52
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $8.12
No position
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.85
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.78
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.69
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.85
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.84
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.42
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.08
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $3.31
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.37
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.36
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 9% 32.49 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 95.1% 0.01 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 95.1% 0.8 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 83.7% 5 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?No 33.8% 8.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 4.93 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 0.05 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 0.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 0.04 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 5.48 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.2% 49.65 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 9.8% 5.19 shares