Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $128.6
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $28.6
Polymarket Trader
0xe5b4...a85a
0xe5b4a77296bab37056e72acc10dce5babf0ba85a
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $547.21
- Realized PnL
- $1.99K
- Win rate
- 29.2%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $218.3
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $870.46
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- $108.3
Yes position
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $8.02
- Potential payout
- $943.44
- Potential profit
- $935.42
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$41.98
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $611.89
- Potential profit
- $611.58
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$74.69
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $27.22
- Potential payout
- $555.56
- Potential profit
- $528.33
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$22.78
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $20.49
- Potential payout
- $460.56
- Potential profit
- $440.06
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$4.37
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.6%
- Current value
- $70.36
- Potential payout
- $379.27
- Potential profit
- $308.92
- Multiplier
- 5.39x
- User PnL
- $7.78
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $17.14
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $340
- Multiplier
- 20.83x
- User PnL
- -$32.86
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $22.37
- Potential payout
- $263.16
- Potential profit
- $240.79
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$27.63
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $15.66
- Potential payout
- $200.76
- Potential profit
- $185.1
- Multiplier
- 12.82x
- User PnL
- -$14.34
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $18.75
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $106.25
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$6.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $860.86
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $747.33
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $354.55
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.29
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.93
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $83.73
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Multiplier
- 4.83x
- User PnL
- -$2.17
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$7.77
Yes position
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10.25
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.67
Yes position
Will the US strike Iran next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25.02
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$37.58
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.75
Yes position
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.1% 1,554.37 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.5% 379.27 shares
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?Yes 37% 173.97 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.4% 460.56 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.6% 1,554.38 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 3.7% 335.56 shares
- Crude Oil all time high by March 31?Yes 0.6% 1,977.96 shares
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?Yes 42.9% 173.98 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Yes 47.9% 103.88 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes 7.5% 331.93 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 24.2% 197.62 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes 14.1% 921.73 shares