KinKitsune

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $203.18
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $846.83
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $32.18

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $159.23
Potential payout: $550.03
Potential profit: $390.8
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $42.91

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $340.38
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$1.93

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $21.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $228.75
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $15.84
Potential payout: $225
Potential profit: $209.16
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: $1.42

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $196.4
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$8.4

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $177.5
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$5.3

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $47
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $153
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$42

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $42.17
Potential payout: $183.33
Potential profit: $141.17
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$1.83

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $15.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $134.93
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $15.1
Potential payout: $125.83
Potential profit: $110.73
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$3.47

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $119.97
Potential profit: $113.37
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$38.39

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $36.61
Potential payout: $100.31
Potential profit: $63.7
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$2.9

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.1
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.55

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $6.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93.95
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.45
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.85

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $95.25
Potential profit: $94.73
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$10.07

Yes position

Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting of Congress?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79
Potential profit: $79
User PnL: -$52.14

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$13.95

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?

Ends Aug 13, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.25
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $47.88
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$2.38

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $49.99
User PnL: -$24.6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $47
Potential profit: $46.74
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$8.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $55

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.8

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: $40.54

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.21

Yes position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.62

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $9.16

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $8.1

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $3.8

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.32

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Multiplier: 14.71x
User PnL: $3.11

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Implied probability: 12%
Multiplier: 8.37x
User PnL: $1.4

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?