4-testfollower-hm7

Implied probability: 11.7%
Current value: $489.21
Potential payout: $4.2K
Potential profit: $3.71K
Multiplier: 8.58x
User PnL: -$1.61K

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $3.71K
Potential payout: $4.2K
Potential profit: $489.21
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.61K

Yes position

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $3.67
Potential payout: $815.12
Potential profit: $811.45
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.42

Yes position

Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $336.47
Potential profit: $335.63
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.42

Yes position

Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $328.59
Potential profit: $327.44
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $271.52
Potential profit: $271.52
User PnL: -$3.26

Yes position

Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $264.07
Potential profit: $262.88
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.33
Potential profit: $209.33
User PnL: -$5.55

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.29
Potential profit: $209.29
User PnL: -$11.98

No position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 84.6%
Current value: $133.72
Potential payout: $158.16
Potential profit: $24.44
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $12.64

No position

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $151.87
Potential payout: $153.71
Potential profit: $1.84
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $137.41
Potential profit: $136.38
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $97.67
Potential payout: $99.61
Potential profit: $1.94
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $85.28
Potential profit: $84.73
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $13.4
Potential payout: $74.25
Potential profit: $60.85
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $61.77
Potential payout: $62.11
Potential profit: $0.34
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.41
Potential profit: $60.41
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $32.53
Potential payout: $52.06
Potential profit: $19.52
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $4.65

Yes position

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $47.66
Potential profit: $45.68
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $22.23
Potential payout: $46.8
Potential profit: $24.57
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$2.22

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $43.42
Potential profit: $43.38
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $37.67
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$3.68

Yes position

Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $37.63
Potential profit: $36.65
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $12.58
Potential payout: $36.48
Potential profit: $23.9
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$3.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.82

Yes position

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.62

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $17.28

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.14

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.11

No position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.72

Yes position

Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.33

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.91

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 19.7%
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $10.59

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.18

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.13

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.76

No position

Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.15

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $7.43

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.23

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.46

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.15

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.13

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?