ljkilian

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.27
Potential payout: $510
Potential profit: $508.72
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $1.27

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $507.28
Potential payout: $508.04
Potential profit: $0.76
User PnL: $507.28

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $474.05
Potential payout: $475.47
Potential profit: $1.43
User PnL: $474.05

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $475
Potential profit: $475
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $474.44
Potential profit: $472.31
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $234.57
Potential payout: $400.98
Potential profit: $166.41
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $36.71

No position

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $179.69
Potential payout: $394.93
Potential profit: $215.24
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$8.97

No position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $168.4
Potential payout: $194.68
Potential profit: $26.28
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3.6

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $11.67
Potential payout: $194.53
Potential profit: $182.85
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$13.42

No position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $135.13
Potential payout: $136.7
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $135.13

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $136.67
Potential profit: $135.65
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.6
Potential profit: $125.6
User PnL: -$6.28

Yes position

Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $114
Potential profit: $113.66
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $113.14
Potential payout: $114
Potential profit: $0.86
User PnL: $113.14

Yes position

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 8.9%
Current value: $5.61
Potential payout: $63.02
Potential profit: $57.41
Multiplier: 11.24x
User PnL: $5.61

No position

Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.6%
Current value: $58.06
Potential payout: $62.69
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $58.06

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.67
Potential profit: $57.67
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $43.27
Potential payout: $56.2
Potential profit: $12.93
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $43.27

No position

Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $15.45
Potential payout: $56.17
Potential profit: $40.72
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $15.45

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $52.96
Potential payout: $53.2
Potential profit: $0.24
User PnL: $52.96

No position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $52.13
Potential payout: $53.19
Potential profit: $1.06
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $52.13

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $52.74
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $52.4
Potential profit: $51.33
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $51.03
Potential profit: $41.08
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $9.95

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.34

No position

GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.53

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.93

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.54

No position

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 42%
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $25.63

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.78

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.17

Yes position

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.75

Yes position

Anthropic acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: $8.34

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.41

No position

Anthropic acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.92

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.19

Yes position

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?