No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $15.76K
- Potential payout
- $17.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $414.49
Polymarket Trader
Palmfrog
0xe6ed4c630dfa0380cf9add8a2c44fa34832007ea
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.65K
- Realized PnL
- $20.89K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 8.7%
- Current value
- $971.11
- Potential payout
- $11.17K
- Potential profit
- $10.2K
- Multiplier
- 11.51x
- User PnL
- $479.41
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $5.22K
- Potential payout
- $6.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $66.27
No position
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.05K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- User PnL
- -$2.69K
No position
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $2.7K
- User PnL
- -$2.47K
Yes position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$1.87K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $407.61
- Potential payout
- $1.99K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$265.86
Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $33.28
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.45K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$16.16
Yes position
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $13.13
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$11.63
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $27.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $972.5
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Yes position
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $990.5
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Fed rate cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $992.5
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $992.5
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $14.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $985.5
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- $7.5
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $122.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $877.5
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$57.5
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $39.38
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $710.63
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $9.38
Yes position
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $620
- Potential profit
- $620
- User PnL
- -$500.73
Yes position
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $491.75
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $495.25
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $247.88
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$8.63
Bills position
Bills vs. Dolphins
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $121.95
- Potential profit
- $121.95
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.27K
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.86K
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
Yes position
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $941.73
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $638.43
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520.51
No position
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $501.15
No position
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $457.05
No position
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450.81
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $408.45
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $392.63
Yes position
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.51
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237
No position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195
Yes position
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.06
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.72
No position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.74
No position
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.47
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.58
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 4.4% 214 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 4.4% 535 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 26.2% 1,988.31 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 83% 750 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 83% 2,003 shares
- Seahawks vs. PatriotsSeahawks 69% 250 shares
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 3% 1,229 shares
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 72.5% 800 shares
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 88% 900 shares
- Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?No 70% 780.55 shares
- Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?No 70% 500 shares
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 67.9% 1,000 shares