Yes position
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.26
- Potential profit
- $80.26
- User PnL
- -$15.25
Polymarket Trader
TemuOracle
0xe7a05852cd33e6959ddd2fdaab0a284ab37869ae
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $85.26
- Realized PnL
- $243.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $29.93
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $3.53
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$6.9
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $23.16
- Potential profit
- $22.94
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$8.48
No position
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $22.29
- Potential payout
- $22.67
- Potential profit
- $0.37
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.43
No position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $18.88
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.12
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$18.2
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.1
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$8.4
Yes position
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.97
- Potential profit
- $5.97
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $2.04
- Potential payout
- $2.04
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1
Ilia Topuria position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.23
- Potential profit
- $1.23
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.25
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.4
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.73
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.96
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.14
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.7
No position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.71
No position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.36
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.21
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.4
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.16
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.97
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.96
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.87
Yes position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.73
No position
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52
No position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
No position
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.37
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16?
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?No 89% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16?No 98.5% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16?No 99.5% 15.46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15?No 99.3% 10 shares
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No 99.9% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?No 95% 1.05 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 54% 10 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 54% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11?No 99.9% 20 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Ilia Topuria 81% 1.23 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?No 97.8% 10 shares
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No 99.2% 20 shares