Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $4.52
- Potential payout
- $76
- Potential profit
- $71.48
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Polymarket Trader
lavanaiona3634
0xe7a8b850f3f7785e8e0244c02d4cd01f037c518b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.52
- Realized PnL
- $19.67
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.81
No position
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June?
Ends Jul 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.81
Yes position
Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
Ends Apr 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.91
No position
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
Y
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Multiplier
- 15.15x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open?
Ends Jun 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?
Ends Mar 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday?
Ends Jun 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
N
No position
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.3% 76 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes 8% 163 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes 8% 182 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes 10.1% 51 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 19% 179 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 19% 179 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 58% 74 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 58% 74 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 94.2% 34 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 94.2% 6 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 7% 65 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 11% 9 shares