z148g4rdo93y9

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $47.85
Potential payout: $2.13K
Potential profit: $2.08K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$3.14

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $27.56
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$0.44

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600.76
Potential profit: $600.76
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $7.22
Potential payout: $535.09
Potential profit: $527.86
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$2.78

Yes position

Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $331.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.17

MOUZ position

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.77
Potential profit: $298.77
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $276.67
Potential profit: $276.67
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $3.88
Potential payout: $235.29
Potential profit: $231.41
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $13.06
Potential payout: $219.54
Potential profit: $206.48
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177.78
Potential profit: $177.78
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.36
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.78
Potential profit: $119.78
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $112.78
Potential profit: $109.28
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $1.83
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $109.28
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103.13
Potential profit: $103.13
User PnL: -$3.3

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $3.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.8
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: $2.2

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.46
Potential profit: $82.46
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $57.18
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.72
Potential profit: $51.72
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.33
Potential profit: $51.33
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.04

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $15.99

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.85

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.65

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?

Ends Oct 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 23.9%
Multiplier: 4.18x
User PnL: $9.27

Yes position

Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $4.98

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.36

Yes position

Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 26?

Ends Sep 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.23

No position

TikTok sale announced by September 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02

Yes position

Will NVIDIA say "Token" 20+ times during their next earnings call?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?