Polymarket Trader

keshish

0xe80cc01475232660fa35131eac5e8b64628b7b44

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.29K
Realized PnL: $201.3
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $179.29
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$38.98

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $83.13
Potential payout: $475
Potential profit: $391.88
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$11.88

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $149.32
Potential payout: $335.56
Potential profit: $186.24
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $267
Potential payout: $286.32
Potential profit: $19.33
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $228
Potential payout: $266.67
Potential profit: $38.67
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $4

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $176.97
Potential payout: $206.98
Potential profit: $30.01
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$1.03

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $179.71
Potential payout: $198.9
Potential profit: $19.19
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $97.22
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $87.97
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$2.78

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $111.91
Potential payout: $176.24
Potential profit: $64.33
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$3.09

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $159.13
Potential payout: $173.91
Potential profit: $14.78
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $85.79
Potential payout: $157.41
Potential profit: $71.62
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.79

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $119.32
Potential payout: $134.83
Potential profit: $15.51
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.67

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $79.44
Potential payout: $112.68
Potential profit: $33.24
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $84.93
Potential payout: $109.59
Potential profit: $24.66
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $4.93

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $80.51
Potential payout: $101.27
Potential profit: $20.76
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $55.56
Potential payout: $79.37
Potential profit: $23.81
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $5.56

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $55.36
Potential payout: $72.37
Potential profit: $17.01
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $53.27
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $6.25
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3.27

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $21.35
Potential payout: $54.05
Potential profit: $32.7
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $21.71
Potential payout: $29.54
Potential profit: $7.83
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $31.67

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $26.12

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.68

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.57

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.45

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.69

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $9.52

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $9.45

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $9.03

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $7.38

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $6.3

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.7%
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $5.18

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.23

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.07

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.4%
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.6%
Multiplier: 3.91x
User PnL: $3.23

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $2.76

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $1.57

No position

Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $1.54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

No 92.9% 125 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

No 92% 173.91 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Yes 12% 41 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

No 86% 206.98 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 90.5% 198.9 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 45% 335.56 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

No 97% 76.05 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 84% 266.67 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Yes 14% 1,600 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 72% 35.71 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

No 95.7% 19 shares
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Yes 23% 333.33 shares