Polymarket Trader

PD7

0xe83f9441081d9e80c3a9bc885afa218ebdd9a43b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $621.76
Realized PnL: $775.19
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $343.22
Potential payout: $363
Potential profit: $19.78
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $31.04

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $181.93
Potential payout: $226
Potential profit: $44.07
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$17.11

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221.3
Potential profit: $221.3
User PnL: -$151.49

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132
Potential profit: $132
User PnL: -$99

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.91
Potential profit: $110.91
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $108.96
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$54

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $46.25
Potential payout: $74
Potential profit: $27.75
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$9.05

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68
Potential profit: $68
User PnL: -$20.38

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$50.63

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $28.67
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $32.33
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$21.35

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $41.29
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $45.5
Potential profit: $44.89
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $45
User PnL: -$9.9

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $31.4
Potential profit: $29.97
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.6%
Current value: $6.68
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $24.32
Multiplier: 4.64x
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will Fulham finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.4
Potential profit: $30.4
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.7%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $23.88
Multiplier: 5.67x
User PnL: $2.62

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $27.36
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $29
User PnL: -$1.02

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.99
Potential profit: $22.99
User PnL: -$10.12

Yes position

Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $21
User PnL: -$3.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.4

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.22

No position

Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.39

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.48

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.99

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.03

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.55

No position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.96

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.05

No position

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $19.02

No position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.24

Bears position

Packers vs. Bears

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.36

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.14

Yes position

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.01

Yes position

Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.19

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.4

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.19

No position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.56

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by Feburary 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The United Kingdom by Feburary 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.02

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

No 93% 150.69 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

No 12% 17 shares
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

No 12% 17 shares
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?

No 25% 8 shares
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?

No 29% 7 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

No 24% 8 shares
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

No 29% 7 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?

No 19% 11 shares
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 98.6% 57 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 98.1% 111.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

No 99.7% 190.98 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 97.8% 14 shares