Yes position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$2.44
Polymarket Trader
0xe84f...8044
0xe84f8b217aec3026494291dc48b524b6ad098044
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $117.04
- Realized PnL
- -$7.54
- Win rate
- 28.6%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $33.48
- Potential payout
- $36
- Potential profit
- $2.52
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $13.5
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.6%
- Current value
- $12.64
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $6.36
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $16.74
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
Yes position
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $16.05
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $6.8
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $11.64
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $1.37
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $8.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.45
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.8%
- Current value
- $6.3
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.34
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $6
- User PnL
- -$1.22
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.4%
- Current value
- $4.28
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $1.62
No position
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.57
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.48
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $4.83
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
No position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 72% 10 shares
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No 96% 5 shares
- Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes 88.8% 8 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 44.3% 6 shares
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?No 78% 6 shares
- Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?Yes 7.1% 17 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No 88% 5 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 12% 11 shares
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?No 80% 13 shares
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?Yes 20% 5 shares
- Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?No 83% 10 shares
- Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 17% 10 shares