Yes position
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $124
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$32.35
Polymarket Trader
rainy59
0xe85845a5bf472014325ed44482aa0cbc92f05bc6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $356.17
- Realized PnL
- -$638.78
- Win rate
- 20%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $16.4
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $783.6
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $31.16
- Potential payout
- $310.09
- Potential profit
- $278.93
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$12.62
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.4%
- Current value
- $180.11
- Potential payout
- $288.86
- Potential profit
- $108.76
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $17.73
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.5
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- $24.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.6%
- Multiplier
- 11.70x
- User PnL
- $8.6
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$5.28
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$9.5
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$11.5
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.41
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$21.8
Yes position
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$32.46
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.79
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$101.28
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$422.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes 7% 30 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 2.2% 800 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No 23% 20 shares
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes 8.2% 25 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 10.4% 10 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes 8% 450 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 12% 100 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 1.9% 250 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 2% 350 shares
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes 9% 400 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 17.5% 40 shares